Vulnerable people

 

 

Who are the vulnerable people in climate change

 

Since IPCCAR5, more studies have reinforced the earlier findings on the spatio-temporal diversity of climate-change impacts on food production in Asia depending on the geographic location, agroecology and crops grown, recognising that there are winners and losers associated with the changing climate across scales . 

Most of these impacts have been associated with drought, monsoon rain and oceanic oscillations, the frequency and severity of which have been linked with the changing climate. 

Climate-related risks to agriculture and food systems in Asia will progressively escalate with the changing climate, with differentiated impacts across the region . 

Major projected impacts of climate change in the agriculture and food sectors include decline in fisheries, aquaculture, crop production , reduction in livestock production in Mongolia and changes in crop, farming systems and crop areas in almost all regions, with negative implications to food security .

Increasing temperatures, changing precipitation levels and extreme climate events, such as heatwaves, droughts and typhoons, will persist in being important vulnerability drivers that will shape agricultural productivity particularly in South, Southeast and Central Asia.

Asian urban areas are considered high-risk locations from projected climate change, extreme events, unplanned urbanisation and rapid land-use change  but also sites of ongoing adaptation . 

Coastal cities, especially in South and Southeast Asia, are expected to see significant increases in average annual economic losses between 2005 and 2050 due to flooding, with very high losses in East Asian cities under the high-emissions scenario . 

Climate change will amplify the urban heat-island effect across Asian cities at 1.5°C and 2°C temperature rise, both substantially larger than under the present climate . 

Under the high-emissions scenario, higher risks from extreme temperature and precipitation are projected for almost all cities , with impacts on freshwater availability, regional food security, human health and industrial outputs. 

The most Climate change has caused direct losses due to the damage in infrastructure, disruption in services and affected supply chains in Asia and will increase risk to infrastructure as well as provide opportunities to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure and green jobs .

At higher warming, key infrastructures, such as power lines, transport by roads and railways, and built infrastructures, such as airports and harbours, are more exposed to climate-induced extreme events, especially in coastal cities . 

Evidence on urban adaptation across Asia is growing with examples of infrastructural adaptation , institutional adaptation, nature ecosystem-based solutions (e.g., mangrove restoration, restoring and managing urban green spaces, urban farming), technological solutions (e.g., smart cities, early warning systems) and behavioural adaptation (e.g., improved awareness and preparedness measures). 

However, adaptation actions tend to be in the initial stages and more reactive . The degree of implementation of urban adaptation is uneven with large cities receiving more funding and priority, and smaller cities and towns, and peri-urban spaces, seeing relatively lower adaptation action .

 Climate change is increasing vector-borne and water-borne diseases, undernutrition, mental disorders and allergy-related illnesses in Asia by increasing hazards such as heatwaves, flooding and drought, and air pollutants, in combination with more exposure and vulnerability . 

Sub-regional diversity in socioeconomic and demographic contexts (e.g., ageing, urban compared with agrarian society, increasing population compared with reduced birth rate, high income compared with low to middle income) and geographic characteristics largely define the differential vulnerabilities and impacts within countries in Asia. 

Under the medium-to-high emissions scenario, rising temperatures and extreme climate events will have an increasing impact on human health and well-being with varying types and magnitudes of impact across Asia . 

More frequent hot days and intense heatwaves will increase heat-related deaths. Increased floods and droughts will have adverse impacts on food availability and the prices of food, resulting in increased undernourishment in South and Southeast Asia. Increases in heavy rain and temperature will increase the risk of diarrhoeal diseases, dengue fever and malaria in tropical and subtropical Asia.

Climate change is already causing economic loss and damage across Asian regions, and this will increase under higher warming .

 Non-material losses and damages are reported to a lesser degree, but this is due to under-reporting and methodological issues with detection and attribution to climate change .

Loss and damage represents a key knowledge gap, especially in West, Central and North Asia. Insufficient literature differentiating loss and damage under future adaptation scenarios renders a comprehensive assessment of residual damages, along with future loss and damage, difficult.

 

 

Determinants of vulnerability

 

 

                            Understanding human vulnerability to climate change